Recently, the prices of products related to the phosphorus chemical industry chain have continued to rise. According to the data released by Baichuan Yingfu, a commodity consulting agency, the quotation of yellow phosphorus on September 15 was 60082 yuan / ton, which stood at the integer level of 60000 yuan at one stroke, an increase of about 280% over the beginning of the year; Affected by the raw material yellow phosphorus, the price of phosphoric acid rose synchronously. The quotation on that day was 13490 yuan / ton, an increase of about 173% over the beginning of the year. Baichuan Yingfu said that the spot market of yellow phosphorus is tight at present, and the price of yellow phosphorus continues to be strong in the short term; The supply of phosphoric acid in the market decreased and the price continued to rise. Due to the tight price of raw materials, the units of some manufacturers have been shut down.

According to the data of Baichuan Yingfu on September 17, the quotation of yellow phosphorus was 65000 yuan / ton, a new high in the year, with a sharp increase of more than 400% in the whole year.

Soochow Securities said that with the acceleration of the dual control policy of energy consumption, the production of raw material yellow phosphorus was greatly limited or out of stock. The power consumption of yellow phosphorus is about 15000 kwh / T. in 2021, the main downstream is phosphate (46%), glyphosate (26%) and other phosphorus pentoxide, phosphorus trichloride, etc. The price of yellow phosphorus is low in summer and high in winter. In 2021, Yunnan power was limited and due to insufficient hydropower supply, the price of yellow phosphorus rose in the wet season, while the supply continued to shrink in the face of low water in winter.

Huachuang Securities believes that the impact of yellow phosphorus production restriction gradually extends to the downstream, the price of purified phosphoric acid rises by 95% to 17000 yuan / ton in a single week, which compresses the profit of industrial monoammonium to negative value, and the profitability of iron phosphate also shrinks, which means that under the supply constraints of yellow phosphorus, the profit pattern of some downstream products will be changed by purifying phosphoric acid, Resource matching is expected to become the focus of the industry again.

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